TrendForce’s latest report indicates a projected surge in global sales of NEVs (New Energy Vehicles), including BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles), PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles), and FCVs (Fuel Cell Vehicles), reaching a staggering 13.03 million units in 2023, marking a growth rate of 29.8%. Despite this, it signifies a notable deceleration from the 54.2% growth observed in 2022. BEVs constitute a significant portion, accounting for 9.11 million units with a growth rate of 24%, while PHEVs clocked in at 3.91 million units, boasting a robust growth rate of 45%.
The report underscores China’s continued dominance as the largest NEV market globally, commanding approximately 60% of the market share. However, growth in China is showing signs of slowing due to the high base effect, with limited sales growth in other regions failing to offset this decline. Consequently, NEV sales growth is anticipated to ease, with an estimated 16.87 million units projected to be sold in 2024, accompanied by a growth rate of 29.5%.
In the fiercely contested BEV segment, Tesla maintains its stronghold in 2023 with a market share of 19.9%. However, BYD emerges as a formidable challenger, narrowing the sales gap with Tesla to a mere 248,000 units. This remarkable feat is attributed to BYD’s consistent performance in China and its expanding global footprint supported by the activation of overseas bases. TrendForce posits that BYD is well-positioned to challenge Tesla’s dominance in the BEV market for the current year.
While Tesla and BYD lead the pack, GAC Aion clinched the third spot for the first time, with SAIC-GM-Wuling and Volkswagen slipping to fourth and fifth place respectively. Noteworthy is the intensified electrification efforts by luxury brands BMW and Mercedes-Benz, securing sixth and eighth places respectively. Hyundai Group, encompassing Hyundai and KIA, maintains their positions thanks to sustained sales growth.
Turning to the PHEV market, BYD and Li Auto emerge as the top two players, with Li Auto registering an impressive 182% growth rate in 2023. Li Auto’s rapid market share expansion is attributed to its strategic focus on mid-size and large SUVs, catering to family-oriented consumers. Meanwhile, traditional stalwarts BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volvo Cars occupy the third to fifth spots, with BMW and Mercedes-Benz facing declines in Europe due to sluggish PHEV sales.
Jeep sees a notable 33% surge, ascending to sixth place, while Chinese brands such as Changan, Denza, and Deepal make their debut in the top ten rankings, highlighting the competitive prowess of the Chinese market. TrendForce anticipates that as Chinese brands ramp up PHEV exports, established automakers will face escalating pressure on growth margins.
Despite China’s slowing domestic growth, automakers are actively diversifying their production sites by establishing overseas bases, not only exporting vehicles but also capitalizing on advantages in vehicle diversity, pricing, and smart features. However, the potential escalation of trade barriers poses a risk to the global spread of Chinese NEVs.
In the U.S., a ban on Chinese-made battery components effective 2024 threatens the eligibility of numerous EV models for subsidies, impacting the industry’s pricing dynamics. While automakers like GM offer equivalent federal tax credits of $7,500, disruptions in the Chinese supply chain pose challenges to driving down EV prices, further complicating the competitive landscape.
Source: TrendForce